Oil since 1965, with every crash-rule exit and S&P bear market

source: FRED WTISPLC (WTI spot, monthly average); Yahoo ^GSPC month-end closes + Shiller dividends (1.3%/yr assumed after Jun 2023) • transform: Shaded = months the crash rule (S&P 500 with dividends below 12 months earlier, at a month-end) held cash. Red: re-entered below the exit level; yellow: re-entered above it. Dashed lines: start of each S&P fall of ~20%+ (1990 was 19.9%). • drawn 2026-11-06 00:08 UTC